10/13/2023 0 Comments Bei jing twinks![]() ![]() What’s more, Beijing had regarded the Wagner Group as Putin’s personal private army and a core pillar of the Russia military operation in Ukraine. ![]() But such speculation was dismissed on the grounds that Putin’s opponents had been jailed, and there was no identifiable threat from within the Russian military. Feng Yujun, for example, spelled out the pattern in a recent article: the 1856 Crimean War led to the demise of Tsar Nicholas I and the Emancipation Reform of 1861 the Russian defeat in the Russo-Japanese War led to the 1905 revolution the loss in World War I led to the 1917 revolution, the end of the Romanov dynasty, and the collapse of the Russian empire and the failure in the 1979 Afghanistan war is seen by China as a key factor in the eventual disintegration of the Soviet Union.īy late 2022, there were discussions about Putin’s political enemies launching a coup. After Russia failed to achieve a quick and decisive victory, these experts have warned in private conversations and track II dialogues that, as in the past, military setbacks could lead to regime collapse. Since the start of Russia’s invasion, the possibility of ensuing instability has loomed large in the minds of Chinese Russia experts. Beijing is unlikely to abandon Russia even if that happens, but remains worried about the diplomatic consequences. Although the mutiny appears over and its political repercussions minimized, Chinese strategists continue to wonder if it has raised the risk of Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The mutiny also illustrates the fragility of an authoritarian system under stress, potentially making Chinese leaders more cautious about any military adventurism on China’s periphery. And if Russia descends into chaos, it will significantly alter China’s external security environment, forcing Beijing to refocus at least some attention back to its the northern border. This raises more questions for Beijing about the future of its alignment with Moscow, as a weak and divided Russia will not be as useful in countering Washington. The mutiny offered a rare but clear example of vulnerability and instability within the Russian system. However, the mutiny’s impact on China’s assessment of its future external strategy should not be ignored. With Russian President Vladimir Putin now appearing to put the mutiny behind him, China’s policy toward Russia is unlikely to change dramatically. To them, it added a whole new layer of uncertainty to their understanding of Russian domestic politics, the Russian-Ukrainian War, and China’s overall external security environment. When the Wagner mutiny first happened in late June, it shocked most strategists and observers in China. ![]()
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